在极低生育率条件下，认为生育率只能随着经济社会发展而下降的传统理论几乎无法为旨在提高生育率的政策提供任何依据和指导，而现实中鼓励生育的政策措施也显现出碎片化倾向。本文根据国际经验比较发现，存在一个与更替水平相同的普世生育率，因此存在从高和低两个方向朝这个水平趋同的一般现象；历史与现实中妨碍生育率回归的因素可归结为社会流动性孱弱问题。在此基础上，本文就提高生育意愿提出了更有针对性和有效性的政策建议。

Under conditions of very low fertility, the traditional theory that fertility declines with economic and social development provides little basis or guidance for policies aimed at increasing fertility, and policy measures to encourage fertility in reality show a tendency towards fragmentation. Based on international experience, this paper first points to the existence of a universal fertility level that is the same as the replacement level, and therefore to the general phenomenon of convergence towards that level in both the high and the low directions; it then attributes the factors that have hindered the return of fertility in both history and reality to the problem of weak social mobility; and it concludes by proposing more targeted and effective policy recommendations for raising fertility intentions.

蔡昉

本文是国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国人口转变的独特性、经济影响及政策研究”（72141310）的阶段性成果。

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