本研究关注计划生育政策调整对生育行为的干预作用，重在系统识别由家庭间社会经济地位差异塑造的异质性政策响应模式。利用2013年“单独二孩”政策形成的独特研究机会，基于非参数匹配和回归调整的因果识别策略，通过分析2015年全国1%人口抽样调查微观数据样本，本研究发现，政策目标夫妻生育二孩的概率较其他夫妻显著升高，而且夫妻响应计划生育政策调整的二孩生育行为基于其社会经济地位呈现分层现象，表明当前有关生育及后续养育、教育等多方面效用成本的预期对生育决策有重要塑造作用。

This study focuses on the interventional effects of family planning policy transition and, more importantly, identifies the systematic patterns of heterogeneous policy responses as shaped by family socioeconomic differentials. It takes advantage of the unique research opportunity set by the “Two-child Policy for One-Only-Child Couples”. Using casual identification strategies incorporating non-parametric matching and regression adjustment, we analyzed the 2015 National One-Percent Population Survey microdata sample and find that, policy-targeted couples had a significantly higher probability of having a second child than non-targeted couples. Meanwhile, the couples' second- child fertility behaviors in response to the family planning poliey transition were systematically stratified by family socioeconomic status, highlighting the important roles of concerns over high costs in childbearing, rearing, and education in shaping fertility decisions in today's China.

杜永潇、董浩

本研究受国家自然科学基金项目“教育和城乡家庭背景的多维婚配模式及其影响研究：超长期趋势与新反事实分析框架”（72003006）资助。

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