本项研究以1994-2019年全国人口普查和人口变动抽样调查数据为基础，采用Lee-Carter模型和沙列文方法对中国老年人口平均健康预期寿命和平均预期生活不能自理时间进行预测，得到以下基本结论：预计到2030年，男性60岁老年人口平均健康预期寿命从2020年的8.54年提升到10.72年，女性60岁老人平均健康预期寿命则从7.45年提升为9.31年。无论男性还是女性，老年人口平均预期生活不能自理时间虽有下降趋势，但仍具有很强的刚性。从2020年到2030年，男性60岁老年人口平均预期生活不能自理时间一直保持在0.90年左右，女性则一直保持在1.50年左右。

Based on the data of the 1994-2019 China population Census and the sampling survey, this study uses the Lee-Carter model and the Sullivan method to predict the health life expectancy and the life expectancy of the elderly population who cannot take care of themselves in China. The following basic conclusion was obtained: It is estimated that by 2030, the average healthy life expectancy of the 60-year-old male population will increase from 8.54 years in 2020 to 10.72 years, and the average healthy life expectancy of the 60-year-old female population will increase from 7.45 years to 9.31 years. For both male and female elderly population, the average expected time of being unable to take care of themselves shows a declining trend, but it still has a strong rigidity. From 2020 to 2030, the average expected time of being unable to take care of themselves for 60-year-old male population has remained unchanged 0.90 years, while that for female population has remained at about 1.50 years.

国家社科基金重大项目“人口老龄化对科技创新的影响机制与战略协同研究”（编号：21&ZD189）。

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