Uncertainty in College Admissions and Educational Attainment Differences: Evidence from a Chinese Province

在教育获得差异的研究中，控制考生学业表现之后，如果性别、民族、城乡等变量系数仍然显著，这些差异是什么机制产生的？在二本线以上，差异是由录取中的不确定性驱动的，而在二本线以下，差异是由不同群体考生对不同层次教育的偏好驱动的。本文采用X省完整高考数据，刻画了不确定性的分布情况、不同社会群体应对不确定性的行为差异以及最终对教育获得差异的影响，并探讨了教育扩张等政策对不确定性的影响。本文研究成果有助于打开教育获得差异生成机制的黑箱，为教育获得差异研究带来新的视角。

In studies of educational attainment, how do we explain the differences among sex, ethnicity and class, when academic performance is controlled for? This article shows that above the threshold of Tier 2 college, differences are driven by uncertainty in admissions. Below the threshold, differences are driven by preferences for different levels of education. Using a complete data set of the National College Entrance Exam from one Chinese province, this article illustrates the distribution of uncertainty, different reactions to uncertainty by social groups, and effects on educational attainment. It also discusses the effect of policies on uncertainty, such as the policy of educational expansion.

李代、王一真

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