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在分歧中寻找共识——中国低生育水平下的人口政策研究与演进

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英文标题:

Seeking Consensus amid Disagreements: The Evolution and Debates of China’s Population Policy Research in the Era of Low Fertility Rate

摘要: 限制生育的人口政策从20世纪70年代至今已经执行了近半个世纪,在经济发展、社会保障等方面产生了深远影响。近年来人口政策先后经历了“单独二孩”和“全面两孩”的调整。人口学界自20世纪90年代以来的争论围绕着三个关键问题:(1)政策调整前的生育水平是多少?(2)政策调整后的生育水平会回升到什么程度?(3)政策调整初期的出生堆积风险有多高?本文从观点分歧、数据方法以及争论中的共识要素等角度系统梳理了对上述问题的学术讨论。我们发现,学界有关人口政策的争论虽然存在分歧,但共识也在形成。为避免跌入“低生育率陷阱”,国家需要营造友好的生育环境,构建与生育配套的各项社会政策,保证中国人口、经济和社会的永续安全。
英文摘要: Since the 1970s, family planning policy has been implemented for nearly half a century and has profound impact on economic development, social security and other socioeconomic aspects. Policy adjustments like the two-child fertility policy for couples when either is from a single-child family and the “universal two-child policy” were adopted in the 2010s. This paper systematically traces three key issues in the debates of Chinese population policy: (1) What is the fertility level before these policy adjustments? (2) To what extent will the fertility level recover after the policy adjustments? (3) How high is the risk of birth accumulation in the early stage of policy adjustments? This paper reviews the academic debates on the above issues in the field of demography since the 1990s, discussing disputed views, data methods and consensus that has been developing in arguments. We find that although disagreements still persist in the debates on population policy, consensus is also emerging. For China to avoid falling into the trap of low fertility rate, the state needs to adopt social policies to create a childbearing friendly environment. This is crucial for sustaining the security of Chinese population, economy and society in the long run.
作者:

王军、刘军强

作者单位: 中山大学社会学与人类学学院(王军);中山大学中国公共管理研究中心、政治与公共事务管理学院(刘军强)
期刊: 社会学研究
年.期:页码 2019.2:219-241
中图分类号:
文章编号:
关键词: 低生育水平;人口政策;争论;学术史
英文关键词:
项目基金:

本文为2015年度国家社会科学基金项目“中国低生育水平下的生育意愿与生育行为差异及对策研究”(15CRK009)的研究成果。

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